Could South Korea or Japan Disappear?

Could South Korea or Japan disappear as nations? For those who asked this question: my apologies for taking forever to answer it. Modern nation-states, at least the developed ones, seem too solid to just disappear. Conquered, sure. But disappear? However, it has happened in the past. Amazonian and Mayan civilizations, for example, disappeared. Jomon civilization in Japan disappeared after a several-thousand year run. When civilizations disappear, usually this is caused by disease or migrations due to climate changes. Based on limited archeological evidence, these civilizations disappeared as people migrated to neighboring regions when the shift in temperatures and rainfall made their previous lifestyle impossible.

Modern civilizations face some migration pressures, as people leave their home countries for better economic options. However, declining birthrates add to the mix. South Korea and Japan lead the world in declining and aging population levels. Both countries have birthrates far below replacement rates, the ability of a civilization to replace the people who die each year. So a birthrate of 2.0 would keep a nation’s population stable since 2 children would be born to every woman, replacing her and the father when they die. This is an over-simplification, but it gives you an idea. South Korea, as of 2024 has a birthrate of 0.74 (Hui Jie, 2025), the lowest in the world. Japan, in 2023 (Hughes) saw a population decline of around 800,000 people. Japan’s population stands at 123,802 thousands (123,802,000),  according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications’ October 2024 estimate. Around 1.2 million small businesses in Japan have owners aged over 70 years old with no successor in line (Hughes, 2023).

South Korea and Japan have tried different policies to try to stop the decline. Japan has offered cash for people to have their kids outside of Tokyo (Hughes, 2023). Japan has seen its rural areas depopulate while its urban centers have increased in population (Hiramatsu, 2023). This movement damages rural economies, which only encourages more urban migration. Japan had used tourism to prop up rural economies with some past success, but the decline in tourism thanks to COVID has hurt this process. Japan’s tourism increased from 5.2 million in 2003 to 31.9 million tourists in 2019. This collapsed to 4.1 million in 2020. As of September 2025, Japan has seen 31.7 million tourists. South Korea has enacted similar policies to halt the bleed, but as these policies struggle, the government has shifted toward trying to work out how to keep the economy going as its population declines, such as offering better “legal and institutional support” for non-traditional families with children (Lee, 2021). The government has tried other policies since 2021 with limited success.

Briefly, there are multiple (and debated) reasons behind the birthrate decline. Japan and South Korea have long workweeks and a work culture that discourages women from having children by forcing them to choose between children and career. Children strongly associate with marriage, which has been on the decline. Stigma remains in South Korea for having children out of wedlock (Ahn, 2023). Gender roles, childcare, and other societal problems complicate things (Ha Park, 2020):

Despite the social trend of prioritizing gender equality, particularly in Japan, childcare and household chores are still broadly considered women’s work—particularly in Korea, where childcare facilities and other forms of infrastructural support remain inadequate. As a result, many women delay marriage or childbirth as they continue to attempt to achieve self-realization while struggling for economic independence.

Considering the circumstances, could South Korea and Japan disappear or even die out as an ethnic group? Dying out as an ethnic group is unlikely. Even in the Amazon and in other historical disappearances, the population folded itself into neighboring areas, blending their genetics and their cultural practices with the genetics and cultures of their neighbors. Japan and South Korea are already doing this. Korean-Americans and Japanese-Americans are a common minority, for example, in the States. Population decline will also achieve an equilibrium at some point. As the elder generation, which enforce the norms that discourage marriage and children, die out, the younger generations will take power and make policy and cultural changes that will halt, and perhaps even reverse, the birthrate decline. Change happens once the older generation dies out or gives up its political power. Even conservative nations like Japan and South Korea follow this rule. The fact so many small businesses in Japan sit on the edge of dying with their owners point to this. The power and economic vacuum will allow younger generations (younger relative to the generation in the driving seat) to step up.

No one can predict when or at what population number this equilibrium would entail. Nor if there is an equilibrium point. Some believe that once the population slide begins, it will continue unless stopped in some other way like policy or immigration. It will differ for South Korea and for Japan. It will differ for the regions too. Japan’s urban areas see population increases at the cost of rural areas. Rural areas face many difficulties, with many towns becoming deserted areas. This might be remedied if remote work or a more localized economy develops in the future. Rural areas in the US face similar problems. The economic difficulties pose the largest risk to both South Korea and Japan. Both countries would be weakened defensively by a decreased population and the decreased economic output. However, population decline doesn’t mean economic collapse. A smaller population has the potential to offer a larger slice of a smaller economic pie per person than a larger population with a larger pie. Population and economic decline could leave South Korea and Japan vulnerable to conquest. I’m falling into politics here, which is hard to avoid considering how it overlaps with population decline. As people gain a larger slice of the economic pie, child rearing becomes more financially viable which might help the hit the equilibrium point before population growth begins again. If you consider children along economic lines, people in poverty tend to have more kids along with people within a comfortable high-middle income bracket. People who are climbing the ladder or stand at the top, generally, have fewer kids when they do at all–as I understand the academic literature, anyway.

Would opening Japan and South Korea to immigration help? Perhaps, although neither country would want the surge of kweebs and weebs. Immigration runs the risk of damaging traditional Japanese and Korean culture if there’s a large influx or difficulty with folding the immigrants into the culture. Japanese and Korean languages present a hurdle. Managed immigration with ample language and acclimation resources, however, may help the population decline in the near term while, perhaps, shifting the birthrates upward. Novelty excites people and leads to relationships, after all.

To get back to the original question. It’s not likely South Korea or Japan will disappear in the short term. Over a long enough time span, both cultures will disappear, either through change or through some sort of conquest. All civilizations eventually end, but their legacy on the human story remains. Population decline and eventual equilibrium, despite all the worry and fearmongering, grants each person more resources. Population decline may slow innovation, but is that really bad? Innovation can move too quickly, outpacing our ability to understand and safely use that innovation. Social media and AI provide  good current examples. We picked up social media before we understood its impact on mental health, body images, social development, and many other areas. AI is already proving to be dangerous with how it enables deepfakes, misinformation, and other problems. Slower, stable, more thoughtful innovation and adoption could be a positive side effect of a smaller population. Of course, the opposite is also possible as governments drown in debt and turn to automation and technology to try to prop up the economy or to help with the eldercare problem. Japan already sees a shortage of eldercare workers.

These concerns about Japan and South Korea continued existence stretches into future centuries. The world would lose its richness if Japanese and Korean culture were to disappear, but most of the hullabaloo we see in media is just attention-grabbing noise rather than something truly problematic in the long term.

References

Ahn, Ashley (2023) South Korea has the world’s lowest fertility rate, a struggle with lessons for us all. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2023/03/19/1163341684/south-korea-fertility-rate

Ha Park, Eon (2020) Ultra-low fertility and policy response in South Korea: lessons from the case of Japan. Aging International. 45. 191-205.

Hiramatsu, Tomoru (2023) Increase in inbound touristis and long-term decline of rural economy in Japan: a multi-regional computable general equilibrium analysis. The Review of Regional Studies. 53, 100-125.

Hughes, Clyde (2023) Japan reports largest yearly population decline since 1968. UPI Top News.

Hui Jie, Lim. (2025) Miracle under threat: South Korea’s birth rate collapse could undo decades of growth. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/27/south-koreas-birth-rate-collapse-threatens-growth.html.

Japan Tourism Marketing Co. (2025)  Overseas Residents’ Visits to Japan. https://www.tourism.jp/en/tourism-database/stats/inbound/

Lee, Jiyeum (2021) South Korea now seeks ways to live with low birth rate. Bloomberg.

Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (October 2025) Current Population Estimates as of October 1, 2024. https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/jinsui/2024np/index.html